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  Indian J Med Microbiol
 

Figure 5: Fitted, predicted versus actual visceral leishmaniasis cases between January 2004 and December 2016 in Kashgar Prefecture. Green star: Actual values; red solid line: ARIMA (2, 1, 2) (1, 1, 1)12 model fitted curve; black dashed line: 95% confidence intervals of fitted values; purple solid line: Forecasted values; the parts of gray and blue are 95% CI and 50% CI of forecasted values, respectively.

Figure 5: Fitted, predicted versus actual visceral leishmaniasis cases between January 2004 and December 2016 in Kashgar Prefecture. Green star: Actual values; red solid line: ARIMA (2, 1, 2) (1, 1, 1)<sub>12</sub> model fitted curve; black dashed line: 95% confidence intervals of fitted values; purple solid line: Forecasted values; the parts of gray and blue are 95% <i>CI</i> and 50% <i>CI</i> of forecasted values, respectively.