|
| |
 |
|
| LETTER TO EDITOR |
|
| Year : 2020 | Volume
: 13
| Issue : 3 | Page : 139-140 |
|
Imported cases of 2019-novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infections in Thailand: Mathematical modelling of the outbreak
Pathum Sookaromdee1, Viroj Wiwanitkit2
1 TWS Medical Center, Bangkok, Thailand
2 Department of Community Medicine, Dr DY Patil University, Pune, India; Hainan Medical University, Haikou, China; Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand
| Date of Submission | 31-Jan-2020 |
| Date of Decision | 31-Jan-2020 |
| Date of Acceptance | 31-Jan-2020 |
| Date of Web Publication | 03-Feb-2020 |
Correspondence Address:
Pathum Sookaromdee
TWS Medical Center, Bangkok
Thailand
 Source of Support: None, Conflict of Interest: None  | 26 |
DOI: 10.4103/1995-7645.277516
How to cite this article:
Sookaromdee P, Wiwanitkit V. Imported cases of 2019-novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infections in Thailand: Mathematical modelling of the outbreak. Asian Pac J Trop Med 2020;13:139-40 |
How to cite this URL:
Sookaromdee P, Wiwanitkit V. Imported cases of 2019-novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infections in Thailand: Mathematical modelling of the outbreak. Asian Pac J Trop Med [serial online] 2020 [cited 2023 Mar 24];13:139-40. Available from: https://www.apjtm.org/text.asp?2020/13/3/139/277516 |
Pathum Sookaromdee, Viroj Wiwanitkit. These authors contributed equally to this work.
Outbreak of a new emerging disease is usually an important consideration in medicine and public health. In December 2019, a new emerging disease started in China and becomes the global concern in early January 2020[1],[2]. The disease, 2019-novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection, already existed outside China and the importation of disease is the cause of emerging 2019-nCoV infections in new settings. Thailand, a tropical country in Indochina, is the first country that reported the first 2019-nCoV infection outside China. Until the present (31 January 2020), the number of cases is 29 and still increasing.
An interesting issue in dealing with the new disease outbreak is nature of disease spreading. The use of medical mathematical modelling technique can help clinical epidemiologist better understand the situation of outbreak[3]. Focusing on the situation of imported emerging disease, the specific knowledge on the disease epidemic is limited. Here, the authors use clinical mathematical modelling technique for explaining the disease outbreak of imported cases of 2019-nCoV infection in Thailand. The available data on imported cases of outbreak during the first month of outbreak (January 2020) of imported cases in Thailand are analyzed. The time function mathematical model was applied.
First, the local data on number of imported cases of 2019-nCoV infections from Thai Center of Disease Control are collected for further study. The accelerate rate of disease spreading is calculated. The definition of accelerate rate is “accelerate rate = velocity/time”, which herby written as A = V/T (or V = AT). Then, the integration was applied for prediction of accumulate imported cases of 2019- nCoV infections (I). The final equation based on the integration model can be written as I = 2AT2 + AT + C where C is a constant.
Based on the available data [Figure 1], the acceleration rate of disease spreading is equal to 0.42 case/day[4]. From integration modelling, the final model is derived as “0.84T2 + 0.42T + C where C is constant.” This model can help better understand the nature of imported emerging disease and useful for planning for disease control and management. | Figure 1. Accumulated number of imported Wuhan novel coronavirus infection in Thailand and duration of disease outbreak.
Click here to view |
Conflict of interest statement
We declare that we have no conflict of interest.
Authors’ contributions
SP and WV conceived and drafted the manuscript. SP and WV were responsible for analyses and data interpretation.
| References | |  |
| 1. | Zhu N, Zhang D, Wang W, Li X, Yang B, Song J, et al. A Novel coronavirus from patients with pneumonia in China, 2019. N Engl J Med 2020 Jan 24. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2001017. [Epub ahead of print]  |
| 2. | Hsia W. Emerging new coronavirus infection in Wuhan, China: Situation in early 2020. Case Study Case Rep 2020; 10(1): 8-9. |
| 3. | Wu JT, Leung K, Leung GM. Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: A modelling study. Lancet January 31, 2020. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30260-9. |
| 4. | Yasri S, Wiwanitkit V. Editorial: Wuhan coronavirus outbreak and imported case. Adv Trop Med Pub Health Int 2020; 10(1): 1-2. |
[Figure 1], [Figure 1]
| This article has been cited by | | 1 |
A RECENT REVIEW ON: CORONAVIRUS DISEASE 2019 |
|
| MANDEEP SINGH, DHRUV DEV | | Asian Journal of Pharmaceutical and Clinical Research. 2022; : 17 | | [Pubmed] | [DOI] | | | 2 |
Quarantine for COVID-19: Management on mass immigration of deported illegal workers |
|
| Won Sriwijitalai, Viroj Wiwanitkit | | Santosh University Journal of Health Sciences. 2022; 8(2): 179 | | [Pubmed] | [DOI] | | | 3 |
Medical logistics analysis: An important tool for COVID-19 containment |
|
| Beuy Joob,Viroj Wiwanitkit | | Medical Journal of Dr. D.Y. Patil Vidyapeeth. 2021; 0(0): 0 | | [Pubmed] | [DOI] | | | 4 |
The Social Consequences of the Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Outbreak in Iran: Is Social Capital at Risk? A Qualitative Study |
|
| Mohadeseh Motamed-Jahromi,Mohammad Hossein Kaveh,Massimiliano Lanzafame | | Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases. 2021; 2021: 1 | | [Pubmed] | [DOI] | | | 5 |
ASSESSMENT OF THE PROFESSIONAL RISK OF EXPOSURE TO COVID-19: A TRANSCULTURAL ADAPTATION |
|
| Herica Silva Dutra, Maira Buss Thofehrn, Lidiane Silva Dutra, Camila Ribeiro Araújo, Luciene Muniz Braga, Fábio da Costa Carbogim, Angélica da Conceição Oliveira Coelho | | Texto & Contexto - Enfermagem. 2021; 30 | | [Pubmed] | [DOI] | | | 6 |
To Procrastinate or Not to Procrastinate: A Retrospective Study of the Optimal Timing of Containing the Global Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic |
|
| Jun Li,Lingjian Ye,Yimin Zhou,Joy Y. Zhang,Zhuo Chen | | Frontiers in Public Health. 2021; 9 | | [Pubmed] | [DOI] | | | 7 |
COVID-19 outbreak, social distancing and mass testing in Kenya-insights from a mathematical model |
|
| Rachel Waema Mbogo,John W. Odhiambo | | Afrika Matematika. 2021; | | [Pubmed] | [DOI] | | | 8 |
SARS-COV-2 outbreak and control in Kenya - Mathematical model analysis |
|
| Rachel Waema Mbogo,Titus Okello Orwa | | Infectious Disease Modelling. 2021; | | [Pubmed] | [DOI] | | | 9 |
Mathematical Model of COVID-19 in Nigeria with Optimal Control |
|
| Adesoye Idowu Abioye,Olumuyiwa James Peter,Hammed Abiodun Ogunseye,Festus Abiodun Oguntolu,Kayode Oshinubi,Abdullahi Adinoyi Ibrahim,Ilyas Khan | | Results in Physics. 2021; : 104598 | | [Pubmed] | [DOI] | | | 10 |
Knowledge of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by medical personnel in a rural area of Thailand |
|
| Patthamaporn Apaijitt,Viroj Wiwanitkit | | Infection Control & Hospital Epidemiology. 2020; 41(10): 1243 | | [Pubmed] | [DOI] | | | 11 |
Elevated plasma levels of selective cytokines in COVID-19 patients reflect viral load and lung injury |
|
| Yingxia Liu,Cong Zhang,Fengming Huang,Yang Yang,Fuxiang Wang,Jing Yuan,Zheng Zhang,Yuhao Qin,Xiaoyun Li,Dandan Zhao,Shunwang Li,Shuguang Tan,Zhaoqin Wang,Jinxiu Li,Chenguang Shen,Jianming Li,Ling Peng,Weibo Wu,Mengli Cao,Li Xing,Zhixiang Xu,Li Chen,Congzhao Zhou,William J Liu,Lei Liu,Chengyu Jiang | | National Science Review. 2020; 7(6): 1003 | | [Pubmed] | [DOI] | | | 12 |
COVID-19 in rural non-resort town: Observation from Thailand |
|
| Beuy Joob,Viroj Wiwanitkit | | Australian Journal of Rural Health. 2020; 28(2): 184 | | [Pubmed] | [DOI] | | | 13 |
Modeling and analysis of COVID-19 epidemics with treatment in fractional derivatives using real data from Pakistan |
|
| Parvaiz Ahmad Naik,Mehmet Yavuz,Sania Qureshi,Jian Zu,Stuart Townley | | The European Physical Journal Plus. 2020; 135(10) | | [Pubmed] | [DOI] | | | 14 |
COVID-19 in medical personnel: observation from Thailand |
|
| Beuy Joob,Viroj Wiwanitkit | | Journal of Hospital Infection. 2020; | | [Pubmed] | [DOI] | | | 15 |
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): A literature review |
|
| Harapan Harapan,Naoya Itoh,Amanda Yufika,Wira Winardi,Synat Keam,Haypheng Te,Dewi Megawati,Zinatul Hayati,Abram L. Wagner,Mudatsir Mudatsir | | Journal of Infection and Public Health. 2020; | | [Pubmed] | [DOI] | | | 16 |
Effect of the Songkran festival on COVID-19 transmission in Thailand |
|
| NatchaC Jitsuk, Pikkanet Suttirat, Charin Modchang | | Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine. 2020; 13(7): 331 | | [Pubmed] | [DOI] | | | 17 |
Minimizing the risk of international spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak by targeting travelers |
|
| SaurabhR Shrivastava,PrateekS Shrivastava | | Journal of Acute Disease. 2020; 0(0): 0 | | [Pubmed] | [DOI] | | | 18 |
Patients with COVID-19 and disguising on travel history: A challenge in disease screening |
|
| Beuy Joob,Wiwanitkit Viroj | | International Journal of Preventive Medicine. 2020; 11(1): 46 | | [Pubmed] | [DOI] | | | 19 |
Recognition on Possibility of No-Fever and No-History of Travel to Risk Country Among Nurse in Rural Area of a Country That COVID-19 Already Existed: Observation |
|
| Patthamaporn Apaijitt,Viroj Wiwanitkit | | International Journal of Preventive Medicine. 2020; 11(1): 47 | | [Pubmed] | [DOI] | | | 20 |
COVID-19: Ratio of occurrence in general people and medical personnel, an observation from the second country that disease emerged |
|
| Pathum Sookaromdee,Viroj Wiwanitkit | | International Journal of Preventive Medicine. 2020; 11(1): 41 | | [Pubmed] | [DOI] | | | 21 |
Variation of 2019 novel coronavirus complete genomes recorded in the 1st month of outbreak: Implication for mutation |
|
| Beuy Joob,Viroj Wiwanitkit | | Journal of Research in Medical Sciences. 2020; 25(1): 33 | | [Pubmed] | [DOI] | | | 22 |
Bronchoalveolar specimen can help detect COVID-19 in suspicious case with negative PCR for nasopharyngeal specimen test |
|
| Beuy Joob,Viroj Wiwanitkit | | Lung India. 2020; 0(0): 0 | | [Pubmed] | [DOI] | | | 23 |
Audiological profile of patients with SARS-Co-V-2 PCR-positive cases |
|
| N.A. Daikhes,O.V. Karneeva,A.S. Machalov,A.O. Kuznetcov,Ya.M. Sapozhnikov,A.V. Balakina,L.N. Khulugurova,V.L. Karpov | | Vestnik otorinolaringologii. 2020; 85(5): 6 | | [Pubmed] | [DOI] | | | 24 |
Trend Dynamics of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Transmission in 16 Cities of Hubei Province, China |
|
| Muhammad Fawad,Sumaira Mubarik,Saima Shakil Malik,Yangyang Hao,Chuanhua Yu,Jingli Ren | | Clinical Epidemiology. 2020; Volume 12: 699 | | [Pubmed] | [DOI] | | | 25 |
SEIR model for COVID-19 dynamics incorporating the environment and social distancing |
|
| Samuel Mwalili,Mark Kimathi,Viona Ojiambo,Duncan Gathungu,Rachel Mbogo | | BMC Research Notes. 2020; 13(1) | | [Pubmed] | [DOI] | |
|
 |
|
|
|
Search Pubmed for