Impact Factor 2019: 1.940 (@Clarivate Analytics)
5-Year Impact Factor: 1.955 (@Clarivate Analytics)
  • Users Online: 706
  • Print this page
  • Email this page

 
Table of Contents
LETTER TO EDITOR
Year : 2020  |  Volume : 13  |  Issue : 3  |  Page : 139-140

Imported cases of 2019-novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infections in Thailand: Mathematical modelling of the outbreak


1 TWS Medical Center, Bangkok, Thailand
2 Department of Community Medicine, Dr DY Patil University, Pune, India; Hainan Medical University, Haikou, China; Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand

Date of Submission31-Jan-2020
Date of Decision31-Jan-2020
Date of Acceptance31-Jan-2020
Date of Web Publication03-Feb-2020

Correspondence Address:
Pathum Sookaromdee
TWS Medical Center, Bangkok
Thailand
Login to access the Email id

Source of Support: None, Conflict of Interest: None


DOI: 10.4103/1995-7645.277516

Get Permissions


How to cite this article:
Sookaromdee P, Wiwanitkit V. Imported cases of 2019-novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infections in Thailand: Mathematical modelling of the outbreak. Asian Pac J Trop Med 2020;13:139-40

How to cite this URL:
Sookaromdee P, Wiwanitkit V. Imported cases of 2019-novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infections in Thailand: Mathematical modelling of the outbreak. Asian Pac J Trop Med [serial online] 2020 [cited 2020 Aug 11];13:139-40. Available from: http://www.apjtm.org/text.asp?2020/13/3/139/277516

Pathum Sookaromdee, Viroj Wiwanitkit. These authors contributed equally to this work.




Outbreak of a new emerging disease is usually an important consideration in medicine and public health. In December 2019, a new emerging disease started in China and becomes the global concern in early January 2020[1],[2]. The disease, 2019-novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection, already existed outside China and the importation of disease is the cause of emerging 2019-nCoV infections in new settings. Thailand, a tropical country in Indochina, is the first country that reported the first 2019-nCoV infection outside China. Until the present (31 January 2020), the number of cases is 29 and still increasing.

An interesting issue in dealing with the new disease outbreak is nature of disease spreading. The use of medical mathematical modelling technique can help clinical epidemiologist better understand the situation of outbreak[3]. Focusing on the situation of imported emerging disease, the specific knowledge on the disease epidemic is limited. Here, the authors use clinical mathematical modelling technique for explaining the disease outbreak of imported cases of 2019-nCoV infection in Thailand. The available data on imported cases of outbreak during the first month of outbreak (January 2020) of imported cases in Thailand are analyzed. The time function mathematical model was applied.

First, the local data on number of imported cases of 2019-nCoV infections from Thai Center of Disease Control are collected for further study. The accelerate rate of disease spreading is calculated. The definition of accelerate rate is “accelerate rate = velocity/time”, which herby written as A = V/T (or V = AT). Then, the integration was applied for prediction of accumulate imported cases of 2019- nCoV infections (I). The final equation based on the integration model can be written as I = 2AT2 + AT + C where C is a constant.

Based on the available data [Figure 1], the acceleration rate of disease spreading is equal to 0.42 case/day[4]. From integration modelling, the final model is derived as “0.84T2 + 0.42T + C where C is constant.” This model can help better understand the nature of imported emerging disease and useful for planning for disease control and management.
Figure 1. Accumulated number of imported Wuhan novel coronavirus infection in Thailand and duration of disease outbreak.

Click here to view


Conflict of interest statement

We declare that we have no conflict of interest.

Authors’ contributions

SP and WV conceived and drafted the manuscript. SP and WV were responsible for analyses and data interpretation.



 
  References Top

1.
Zhu N, Zhang D, Wang W, Li X, Yang B, Song J, et al. A Novel coronavirus from patients with pneumonia in China, 2019. N Engl J Med 2020 Jan 24. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2001017. [Epub ahead of print]  Back to cited text no. 1
    
2.
Hsia W. Emerging new coronavirus infection in Wuhan, China: Situation in early 2020. Case Study Case Rep 2020; 10(1): 8-9.  Back to cited text no. 2
    
3.
Wu JT, Leung K, Leung GM. Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: A modelling study. Lancet January 31, 2020. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30260-9.  Back to cited text no. 3
    
4.
Yasri S, Wiwanitkit V. Editorial: Wuhan coronavirus outbreak and imported case. Adv Trop Med Pub Health Int 2020; 10(1): 1-2.  Back to cited text no. 4
    


    Figures

  [Figure 1], [Figure 1]


This article has been cited by
1

Trend Dynamics of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Transmission in 16 Cities of Hubei Province, China

Muhammad Fawad,Sumaira Mubarik,Saima Shakil Malik,Yangyang Hao,Chuanhua Yu,Jingli Ren
Clinical Epidemiology. 2020; Volume 12: 699
[Pubmed] | [DOI]
2 Elevated plasma levels of selective cytokines in COVID-19 patients reflect viral load and lung injury
Yingxia Liu,Cong Zhang,Fengming Huang,Yang Yang,Fuxiang Wang,Jing Yuan,Zheng Zhang,Yuhao Qin,Xiaoyun Li,Dandan Zhao,Shunwang Li,Shuguang Tan,Zhaoqin Wang,Jinxiu Li,Chenguang Shen,Jianming Li,Ling Peng,Weibo Wu,Mengli Cao,Li Xing,Zhixiang Xu,Li Chen,Congzhao Zhou,William J Liu,Lei Liu,Chengyu Jiang
National Science Review. 2020; 7(6): 1003
[Pubmed] | [DOI]
3 Minimizing the risk of international spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak by targeting travelers
SaurabhR Shrivastava,PrateekS Shrivastava
Journal of Acute Disease. 2020; 0(0): 0
[Pubmed] | [DOI]
4 Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): A literature review
Harapan Harapan,Naoya Itoh,Amanda Yufika,Wira Winardi,Synat Keam,Haypheng Te,Dewi Megawati,Zinatul Hayati,Abram L. Wagner,Mudatsir Mudatsir
Journal of Infection and Public Health. 2020;
[Pubmed] | [DOI]
5 Patients with COVID-19 and disguising on travel history: A challenge in disease screening
Beuy Joob,Wiwanitkit Viroj
International Journal of Preventive Medicine. 2020; 11(1): 46
[Pubmed] | [DOI]
6 COVID-19: Ratio of occurrence in general people and medical personnel, an observation from the second country that disease emerged
Pathum Sookaromdee,Viroj Wiwanitkit
International Journal of Preventive Medicine. 2020; 11(1): 41
[Pubmed] | [DOI]
7 Recognition on Possibility of No-Fever and No-History of Travel to Risk Country Among Nurse in Rural Area of a Country That COVID-19 Already Existed: Observation
Patthamaporn Apaijitt,Viroj Wiwanitkit
International Journal of Preventive Medicine. 2020; 11(1): 47
[Pubmed] | [DOI]
8 COVID-19 in medical personnel: observation from Thailand
Beuy Joob,Viroj Wiwanitkit
Journal of Hospital Infection. 2020;
[Pubmed] | [DOI]
9 SEIR model for COVID-19 dynamics incorporating the environment and social distancing
Samuel Mwalili,Mark Kimathi,Viona Ojiambo,Duncan Gathungu,Rachel Mbogo
BMC Research Notes. 2020; 13(1)
[Pubmed] | [DOI]
10 COVID-19 in rural non-resort town: Observation from Thailand
Beuy Joob,Viroj Wiwanitkit
Australian Journal of Rural Health. 2020; 28(2): 184
[Pubmed] | [DOI]
11 Bronchoalveolar specimen can help detect COVID-19 in suspicious case with negative PCR for nasopharyngeal specimen test
Beuy Joob,Viroj Wiwanitkit
Lung India. 2020; 0(0): 0
[Pubmed] | [DOI]
12 Variation of 2019 novel coronavirus complete genomes recorded in the 1st month of outbreak: Implication for mutation
Beuy Joob,Viroj Wiwanitkit
Journal of Research in Medical Sciences. 2020; 25(1): 33
[Pubmed] | [DOI]



 

Top
 
  Search
 
    Similar in PUBMED
   Search Pubmed for
   Search in Google Scholar for
    Access Statistics
    Email Alert *
    Add to My List *
* Registration required (free)  

 
  In this article
References
Article Figures

 Article Access Statistics
    Viewed2862    
    Printed99    
    Emailed0    
    PDF Downloaded569    
    Comments [Add]    
    Cited by others 12    

Recommend this journal